Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19

TANG Liang-hong-xu; WANG Wei-ping; WANG Hao; YUAN Man-man; LUO Xiong; LI Jian-wu

doi:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

Volume 44 Issue 6

May 2022

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TANG Liang-hong-xu, WANG Wei-ping, WANG Hao, YUAN Man-man, LUO Xiong, LI Jian-wu. Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2022, 44(6): 1080-1089. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

Citation:

TANG Liang-hong-xu, WANG Wei-ping, WANG Hao, YUAN Man-man, LUO Xiong, LI Jian-wu. Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering, 2022, 44(6): 1080-1089. doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

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Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

TANG Liang-hong-xu¹,
WANG Wei-ping^{1, 2, 3
,
,},
WANG Hao⁴,
YUAN Man-man^{1, 2, 3},
LUO Xiong^{1, 2, 3},
LI Jian-wu^{5, 6}

1.
School of Computer and Communication Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
2.
Shunde Graduate School, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Foshan 528399, China
3.
Beijing Key Laboratory of Knowledge Engineering for Materials Science, Beijing 100083, China
4.
The Research Institute of Informatization and Industrialization Integration, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing 100191, China
5.
Advanced Technology Research Institute, Beijing Institute of Technology, Jinan 250300, China
6.
Faculty of Engineering, Huanghe Science and Technology College, Zhengzhou 450000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: weipingwangjt@ustb.edu.cn
Received Date: 2021-03-16
Available Online: 2022-03-11
Publish Date: 2022-06-25

Abstract

Abstract

With the increasing popularity of the Internet and the spread of COVID-19, epidemic-related rumors have attracted significant attention, allowing them to brew quickly and pose extremely negative social impacts. It is of great significance to investigate the propagation process of online rumors and offer tentative strategies to curb it. Based on the traditional susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model of online rumor propagation, groups of potential and die-hard rumor believers were introduced in this paper, establishing an authoritative rumor-refuting mechanism. Meanwhile, this paper considered factors such as the time-lag effect of rumor refutation from the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions and the impact of the popularizing rate of higher education on the propagation and refutation of rumors. As a result of the process, the SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected) rumor propagation model was established to study how the proportion of the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and die-hard-infected varies under different popularizing rates of higher education, the presence or absence of the authoritative rumor-refuting institutions, and the time-lag effect of rumor refutation. Finally, the model’s effectiveness was verified via experimental simulation, which provided a reference for controlling the spread of online rumor propagation. In addition, the paper proposed a rumor-refuting coefficient to measure the rumor-refuting ability of the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions. The results show that (1) increasing popularizing rate of higher education significantly slows down the rumor propagation and reduces the rumor propagation peak; (2) refuting the rumors based on the authoritative institutions is decisive for the ultimate elimination of rumors; and (3) eliminating the time-lag effect in refuting rumors facilitates slowing down the propagation of the online rumors. Therefore, the paper puts forward a feasible strategy to eliminate the time-lag effect of online rumor refutation in the future.
- online rumor,
- rumor propagation model,
- die-hard infected believer,
- time-lag effect,
- authoritative rumor refutation,
- popularizing rate of higher education,
- rumor-refuting coefficient,
- rumor-refuting strategy

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References(32)

References

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