Long-term scenario forecast of production routes,energy consumption and emissions for Chinese steel industry

A whole life cycle model covering steel production,manufacturing,consumption and end-of-life,together with an output prediction model on the basis of per capita steel stock,is constructed to accurately forecast the trends of production routes,energy consumption and emissions for Chinese steel industry. Predictions with five scenarios including business as usual scenario,scrap recycle rate improvement scenario,steel lifetime improvement scenario,energy intensity improvement scenario and ALL scenario were conducted in combination with the analysis of energy use and CO₂ emissions of each production unit. The results show that Chinese steel production,energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will decline after a peak and the EAF production route will become the mainstream after replacing the BF-BOF route gradually. Meanwhile,production route change is the key "dividend"to cut the future energy consumption and emissions. The role of technical improvement will gradually emerge in the latter. To meet the goal of reducing emissions by half in 2050,many strategies,referring to ALL scenario,should be applied to promote the production route adjustment,steel recyclability and technologies of energy conservation and emission reduction.