Dynamic modeling and simulation of hazard and risk evolution for mine tailing ponds

To prevent the accidents of mine tailing ponds, a complex network of relevance between accidents and associated hazards was established and a system dynamics (SD) model of hazard states and risk evolution was illustrated for mine tailing ponds. The complex network and SD model were combined and applied in a case study. The results demonstrate that the hazard and risk evolution rule of mine tailing ponds can be precisely characterized by an ingenious combination of the complex network, tristate method, and SD model. The key findings include hazard action relations, evolution pathways, risks levels, etc. By means of a case study on the Linsteel 980 Ditch tailing pond, the simulation results coincide with the actual development of accidents and also effectively demonstrate the accident evolution diversifications of mine tailing ponds in time and space as well as the risk level, so the model can be used to predict the occurrence of risks.